# Baseline: Demographics → Sovereign Spreads

| Model | Dep Var | N | Countries | R² |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B1: Z → spread (world) | sovereign_spread | 727 | 23 | 0.346 |
| B2: Z → spread (US) | spread_vs_us | 727 | 23 | 0.358 |
| B3: Z → spread + debt | sovereign_spread | 722 | 23 | 0.352 |
| B4: Z → spread | rating | sovereign_spread | 727 | 23 | 0.459 |
| B5: EMU Z → spread vs DE | spread_vs_de | 357 | 11 | 0.254 |
| B6: age ratios → spread | sovereign_spread | 727 | 23 | 0.322 |
| B7: Z → short spread | short_spread | 728 | 23 | 0.466 |
| B8: Z → log spread vs US | log_spread_vs_us | 347 | 20 | 0.256 |

## Key Coefficients

| Model | Variable | Coef | SE | p-value | Sig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B1: Z → spread (world) | Z_1 | 14.7280 | 12.3633 | 0.2339 |  |
| B1: Z → spread (world) | Z_2 | -2.0568 | 1.6226 | 0.2054 |  |
| B1: Z → spread (world) | Z_3 | 0.0746 | 0.0597 | 0.2123 |  |
| B2: Z → spread (US) | Z_1 | 12.9611 | 13.0868 | 0.3223 |  |
| B2: Z → spread (US) | Z_2 | -1.7668 | 1.7176 | 0.3040 |  |
| B2: Z → spread (US) | Z_3 | 0.0625 | 0.0632 | 0.3236 |  |
| B3: Z → spread + debt | Z_1 | 10.7243 | 12.5056 | 0.3914 |  |
| B3: Z → spread + debt | Z_2 | -1.4767 | 1.6456 | 0.3698 |  |
| B3: Z → spread + debt | Z_3 | 0.0508 | 0.0608 | 0.4038 |  |
| B3: Z → spread + debt | govt_debt_gdp | 0.0068 | 0.0042 | 0.1094 |  |
| B4: Z → spread | rating | Z_1 | 11.4953 | 10.9933 | 0.2961 |  |
| B4: Z → spread | rating | Z_2 | -1.4457 | 1.4459 | 0.3177 |  |
| B4: Z → spread | rating | Z_3 | 0.0472 | 0.0533 | 0.3761 |  |
| B4: Z → spread | rating | rating_numeric | -0.2213 | 0.0351 | 0.0000 | *** |
| B5: EMU Z → spread vs DE | Z_1 | 12.5340 | 18.6061 | 0.5010 |  |
| B5: EMU Z → spread vs DE | Z_2 | -1.7574 | 2.4777 | 0.4786 |  |
| B5: EMU Z → spread vs DE | Z_3 | 0.0697 | 0.0927 | 0.4524 |  |
| B6: age ratios → spread | old_dep | -5.5017 | 2.8989 | 0.0581 | * |
| B6: age ratios → spread | youth_dep | 9.8603 | 3.6464 | 0.0070 | *** |
| B7: Z → short spread | Z_1 | -12.4359 | 12.1593 | 0.3068 |  |
| B7: Z → short spread | Z_2 | 1.0943 | 1.6064 | 0.4960 |  |
| B7: Z → short spread | Z_3 | -0.0317 | 0.0594 | 0.5935 |  |
| B8: Z → log spread vs US | Z_1 | 9.3444 | 9.4580 | 0.3239 |  |
| B8: Z → log spread vs US | Z_2 | -1.4149 | 1.2711 | 0.2664 |  |
| B8: Z → log spread vs US | Z_3 | 0.0551 | 0.0477 | 0.2484 |  |

*Controls: rgdp_growth, fiscal_bal_gdp, kaopen, nfa_gdp_lag*